ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF DEMOGRAPHIC PROCESSES ON SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF KHMAO

Abstract

Introduction. The study examines the impact of demographic processes on the socio-economic development of the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug as a region with a unique industry structure and high economic activity. Particular attention is paid to how changes in the population size and structure affect the reproduction of labor resources, domestic demand and territorial disproportions. It is noted that the key factors shaping the demographic profile of the region are the birth rate, mortality, migration and age structure. These parameters form the basis for building a long-term development strategy, having both a stimulating and limiting ef- fect on the economy of the district. Materials and methods. The work used statistical data from Rosstat, analytical reviews of the demographic situation and official reports on the socio- economic development of the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug for 2017-2023. A systemic analysis of key indicators was carried out: population size, birth and death rates, natural and mi- gration growth, change in the share of the urban population. Graphical interpretation methods of data were also applied, comparative diagrams were constructed and trends were identified. To interpret cause-and-effect relationships, a structural and functional approach to analyzing the impact of demographic factors on the regional economy was used. Research results. Analysis of the dynamics of demographic factors showed an upward trend mainly due to positive migration inflow and continued natural growth. Based on the analysis, the main challenges to the socio- economic development of the region were identified. Discussion and conclusion. Demographic shifts in the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug have a complex impact on the regional econ- omy, determining the availability of labor resources, parameters of domestic demand and the burden on social infrastructure. Despite positive migration trends and a relatively young age structure, the challenges of population aging, declining birth rates and fragmentation of migrant integration remain. Maintaining sustainable growth will require strengthening demographic pol- icy aimed at developing human capital, improving the quality of labor resources and a balanced territorial distribution of the population. Overcoming structural constraints formed by demogra- phy will be a key condition for increasing the competitiveness of the district in the long term.